After a sluggish start to the year, national housing activity is finally showing signs of life. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reports that home sales rose 3.8% month-over-month in July, marking four straight months of increases and an 11.2% cumulative gain since March—a rebound CREA’s senior economist says had been delayed but is now underway. CREA will release August’s national sales and average price on Monday, September 15, 2025. In the meantime, early board results show a mixed picture: in the GTA, TRREB reports an average selling price of $1,022,143 in August (–5.2% y/y), with the MLS® HPI Composite also down 5.2% y/y; in Montreal, the QPAREB notes 3,330 sales in August (+12% y/y) and a single-family median price of $633,250 (+7% y/y). (CREA Stats, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, apciq.ca)

Quick takeaways

• Sales up 3.8% in July vs. June; +6.6% year-over-year on an unadjusted basis. (CREA)

• New listings were flat (+0.1%), tightening conditions nationally. (CREA)

• Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR): 52%, squarely within the balanced range (roughly 45–65%). (CREA)

• National average sale price: $672,784 (July, unadjusted). (CREA)

Are we drifting into sellers’ market territory?

With sales climbing and new listings essentially unchanged, supply is feeling a light squeeze. CREA characterizes 52% SNLR as balanced, but notes that if these trends persist, conditions could tilt toward sellers in the months ahead—especially if buyers return faster than new inventory arrives. The key isn’t one hot month; it’s momentum. Four consecutive monthly gains hint that the tide may be turning. (CREA)

What’s driving the rebound?

CREA points to a clearing sky after spring’s macro-uncertainty: pent-up demand appears to be re-entering the market, and seasonality (the fall listing surge) could amplify activity. Since March, sales are up 11.2%, suggesting more buyers are testing affordability and confidence again. (CREA)

One country, many markets

Canada’s housing story is never one-size-fits-all. Recent patterns from CREA’s report highlight a patchwork:

• Quebec & Atlantic Canada: Prices have been rising “almost everywhere” for nearly three years. (CREA)

• Prairies: Broadly firmer pricing, with Calgary called out as a higher-price outlier. (CREA)

• British Columbia: Lower Mainland prices are softening, but Victoria and the Interior show price growth. (CREA)

• Ontario: A mixed bag, with fewer places seeing declines as we move forward. (CREA)

Translation: national headlines can mislead. Your local trend may be running ahead—or behind—the national average.

What this means for buyers

• More competition is possible if sales keep outpacing new listings. Lock in financing early and be ready with a clean, flexible offer strategy.

• Focus on fundamentals: neighbourhood comps, days on market, and property condition matter more than the national chatter.

• Mind the micro-cycles: fall often brings a rush of listings; that could briefly widen choice even as demand builds. (CREA)

What this means for sellers

• Pricing power could improve if inventory stays tight, but this is still a segment-by-segment market. In areas where prices are drifting down (e.g., parts of the Lower Mainland), smart pricing and standout presentation remain critical. (CREA)

• Prep to win: pre-list inspections, minor repairs, professional photos, and strategic timing can expand your buyer pool in a balanced-to-tightening market.

What to watch next

• Inventory flow: If new listings don’t pick up while sales do, we move closer to sellers’ territory. SNLR trending higher (toward or above ~65%) would be a clear signal nationally. (CREA)

• Regional divergence: Keep an eye on your city’s board stats; they will matter more than the national average. (CREA)

Bottom line: Canada’s market is warming, not boiling. The end of the summer’s data extends a multi-month recovery and hints at a mild shift toward sellers if momentum holds—but for now, we’re broadly balanced. In a patchwork market like Canada’s, local intel is everything. If you’re planning a move this fall, anchor your strategy to your neighbourhood’s numbers, not the national headline. (CREA)

Sources: CREA summary of July 2025 market data and commentary.

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